Newsflash - Earthquake Coming
Apr 16th, 2008 by alyoung
As I read the paper this morning the headline on the front page of the San Francisco Chronicle read “Huge State Quake Predicted within 30 Years”. This is front page news? For those of us who grew up in California earthquakes are an accepted part of life. I still have vivid memories of the 1989 quake. We get tremors from time to time and it is no big deal to us. In the back of our minds we know that the “big one” may come at any time. It is the risk of living in California.
I know that it is impossible to predict earthquakes with any degree of accuracy but if you cannot pinpoint it closer than a 30 year period why bother making a prediction. Its useless information. The article says scientists predict that “there is a 99 percent chance that one or more of the major faults in the state will rupture and trigger a quake with a magnitude of at least 6.7 in the next 30 years.” That is like predicting that there is a 99% chance of a major rain storm in the next 12 months. That information is of no use to me. Even if you can only predict within a 5 year period of a major earthquake that would be useful, but 30 years? Useless information
